Strong HODL Trend: 75% of Bitcoin Unmoved

On-chain data reveals a significant shift in Bitcoin (BTC) investor behavior, with a growing number of holders demonstrating a long-term perspective.

According to Glassnode’s Hodl Waves chart, a staggering 74% of the circulating Bitcoin supply has remained dormant for at least six months, as of August 19th, 2024. This represents a substantial increase from just one week prior, when approximately 45% of BTC exhibited similar dormancy.

This trend suggests a growing confidence among long-term Bitcoin investors, who may be viewing the cryptocurrency as a long-term store of value. Despite a recent 21% price decline from its all-time high, these investors appear unfazed and are holding onto their BTC in anticipation of future price appreciation.

The dominance of older, unmoved coins has a significant impact on the overall Bitcoin market. It effectively reduces the available supply of BTC for trading, potentially leading to price increases in the future. This dynamic reflects basic economic principles – as demand remains constant but supply shrinks, the price tends to rise.

However, the current market climate isn’t entirely bullish. On-chain analyst James Check, in a recent post, highlighted the underwater position of over 80% of short-term Bitcoin holders (those holding BTC for less than 155 days). These investors purchased their coins at prices exceeding the current spot price, leaving them vulnerable to potential losses.

Check warns that a repeat of past behavior could exacerbate a bearish trend. In previous bear markets (2018, 2019, and mid-2021), similar underwater positions often triggered panic selling, further driving down prices.

Market Sentiment Remains Bearish

The broader market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin continues to lean towards fear. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index currently sits at a score of 28, firmly within the “Fear” zone. This represents a notable return to fear levels not observed since December 2022, reflecting a general lack of confidence among investors.

While Bitcoin prices experienced a brief surge above $60,000 in late weekend trading, they have since fallen back to around $58,619. This volatility underscores the ongoing uncertainty within the cryptocurrency market.

The increasing dormancy of Bitcoin suggests a growing cohort of long-term investors. However, the current market conditions present both opportunities and challenges. While reduced supply could lead to future price increases, the underwater position of short-term holders and overall bearish sentiment raise concerns about potential downward pressure on the price. As the market continues to evolve, it will be critical to monitor these trends and the broader economic landscape to understand the future trajectory of Bitcoin.